Crypto Screener Forums Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast – Technical Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis – May 2018

This topic contains 6 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by margincall margincall 1 year ago.

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  • #17618
    admin
    admin
    Moderator

    This is the thread for market reports on the Bitcoin markets in the month of May 2018.

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  • #17703
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    With all the headlines it is safe to say that there is a bearish sentiment among the mainstream media/analysts right now. While the market is still in bear mode no doubt, in my opinion there is a possibility of a break higher this week, lets take a look.

    btcusd forecast 28 May 2018

    As I mentioned in my previous reports, critical support for the Bitcoin market is at $7200, it has seen quite a bit of action since Feb. The RSI is signalling oversold conditions on the 1 Day candle chart, a clear indication that open interest is building in the market.

    It is important to note that the momentum is clearly still bearish, volatility in the market is quite high and the $7200 support zone (my opinion) could very well extend to $6800. With that said volume is quite poor, if the bears are going to rekt Bitcoin some more I want to see that selling pressure.

    I know there are a lot of calls saying we are going to $5000 and even $3000, here is my personal view on the matter. Critical support is around $7200, psychological support is at $7000, if that fails we can expect even lower prices.

    Traders that are going long here might set close stop losses or a bit more lose to around $6500 – $6800. Like I mentioned before, picking bottoms is a bad habit and a good way to get rekt in any market. Most trades here should be considered high risk.

    I spotted a possible divergence on the 4 hour chart, one of the reasons for my crazy claim at the start of the report, lets take a closer look.

    btcusd 4hr forecast 28 May 2018

    Even though it is just a slight divergence, it is there none the least. Should the RSI continue to tick higher, with confirmation from our other indicator, there is a good probability that the market will play catch-up to the momentum indicated.

    A possible bounce here can take us back up to $7400 and maybe $7600 again, should this happen it is important to be mindful of the price action. For a safer entry in the market it would be safer for traders to be patient and see where the next bout of momentum comes from.

    I hope you enjoyed the report, feel free to chat to me and our trading community on Discord.

    Safe trades.

     

    #17677
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Good day! I hope everybody is feeling AWESOME today, the Bitcoin market has followed my previous report, and we are currently testing critical support, lets take a look.

    btcusd forecast 24 May 2018

    As you can see the market is in a bit of panic at the moment with sellers maintaining control for the time being. We can see the volume clearly picking up as we reach our critical support level at $7200 – $7400, like mentioned in my previous report.

    The Head and Shoulders pattern has broken to the downside (for the time being) and this is a massive bearish signal for the Bitcoin market. As we can see the PPO indicator is hinting that there are some bulls appearing on the scene, however please remember a dead cat bounce is quite normal after a heavy sell-off in any market.

    The cat could bounce as high as $7800, but most long entries on the market at this point should be considered high risk. For those wishing for safer trades, it would be better to wait for consolidation above the right shoulder of the pattern.

    Like I mentioned previously $7200 is my longer term support zone, and should we fail to consolidate above here I would expect the bearish market conditions to continue. With that said I will be keeping an eye on the price action in this zone to show me the way forward. Those that follow my reports will remember that I mentioned $9600 as a good place to take some profits, now I am looking at good places to enter the market again. Safe trades.

     

    #17651
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Bitcoin failed to conquer the $8600 – $8800 resistance this week and there is a newly confirmed bearish trend on the shorter term. Lets take a look at the chart.

    btcusd forecast 18 May 2018

    Bearish price action has tested the 8k support twice now on the near term and should it fail to summon the bulls it will soon become resistance. As I mentioned in my previous reports I would consider adding to long positions should we dip into the lower 7k zones.

    Momentum is confirming the bearish trend for me at this point, higher risk traders could consider shorting should our current support fail. The volume is still kind of low going into the weekend, I will look out for some action on the markets today.

    There are two possibilities today, in my opinion, should 8k step in as support we could see a good bounce here, back into the higher 8k zone, on the flipside should 8k fail I am sure the market will have to consolidate lower before we will witness the return of the bulls.

    Longer term speaking I am bullish above $7200, but bearish on the shorter time frame, and looking for a possible bounce. Safe trades!

     

    #17646
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Lets take a quick look at the contradicting signals on the Bitcoin market versus the US Dollar.

    btcusd forecast 15 May 2018

    Taking a look at the chart we can clearly see that we have indeed entered a new bearish downtrend, with resistance looking solid as a rock around $8800 – $9100. There are many contradicting signals, such as a small bull flag inside of a much bigger bearish flag.

    I added the purple dotted line to indicate the new bullish trend developing on the shorter time frame, with support around $8000 – $8400 at the time of writing this report. This bullish momentum is confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator, however the PPO indicator has already begun contradicting its neighbor.

    When we take a look at the 1 Day candles we can see the emergence of a possible triangle, which is a classic in the crypto world. On the medium time frame for me I have support in at around $7000 – $7100, and would consider adding to my longs should the market dip that low.

    As a final note I would just like to add that there is not much volume going into this week and it is most likely that the next burst of buying or selling will determine our trajectory. Please feel free to discuss this trade idea with our community on Discord. Safe trades.

     

     

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by margincall margincall. Reason: grammar, spelling errors :P
    #17630
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Bitcoin faced major resistance last week around $9600, and like mentioned in my previous report, we are retesting the 8k zone.

    btcusd forecast 14 may 2018

    When we look at the indicators on the 4hr candle chart we can see that the bullish momentum is building up in the market again, however there is a ton of resistance above $8600 – $8800. The bulls have a lot of work to do to get us through this ceiling, but with the right price action it sure is possible on the shorter term.

    I can see quite a bit of bearish talk on the candlestick patterns, as well as a possibility that a new longer term bearish trend has emerging. If this is the case I would expect the support level around $8000, short term, to get tested again, and $7100 could be on the cards should the above mentioned fail.

    Best case scenario here in my opinion would be some sideways trading for the Bitcoin USD pair, between $8000 and $8800. This will be quite a healthy correction in my opinion and necessary if we expect a break above $9600 to test the illusive 10k barrier.

    Please remember this is crypto and anything can happen, be prepared, bulls and bears will battle it out this week. Safe trades

    #17623
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Whats happening moon people, Bitcoin failed to break through $10 000 and we find the market correcting itself after the gains from early April.

    btcusd forecast 8 May 2018

    Bitcoin has fallen through the first few bullish trend lines and is now on critical support, in my opinion, if there were to be a bounce this would be a good place to buy. However I am not convinced with the price action and a retest of $9000 – $8800 is most likely on the cards.

    Should the above support zone hold we could expect the bulls to pull back into the market, but as it stands right now, momentum is turning bearish and I think we could see some more selling action before the weekend.

    There are some bearish candlestick patterns on the 4 hour candles, hinting to more downside in the market.

    Both indicators are confirming my bearish suspicions and I will wait for some bullish signals before going long on the market. For those higher risk traders there could be a short on the table should our near term support fail.

    The prices will need to consolidate above $9400 – $9600 for the bullish momentum to continue. (just my opinion)

    Feel free to discuss this trade idea with me in Discord, safe trades.

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