Crypto Screener Forums Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast – Technical Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis – March 2018

This topic contains 11 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by margincall margincall 1 year, 1 month ago.

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  • #1640
    CheesePuff
    CheesePuff
    Moderator

    This is the thread for analysis on the Bitcoin markets in the month of March 2018.

Viewing 11 replies - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
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  • #17163
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Quick weekend update on the Bitcoin market.

    btcusd forecast 30 march 2018
    Bitcoin failed to maintain its bullish momentum on the short term vs the US Dollar, however it seems that there might be some buying support on the longer term bullish trend line.

    Prices dipped below $6800 this morning (mentioned in my previous report), we saw some good price action at that level quickly pushing prices back into the $7000 zone.

    It could be possible that the bulls are trying to build a foundation below the 7k zone.

    It is important to realize that we are still in a bearish trend and that most trades on the market should be considered higher risk.

    $7000 is a critical support level for me and should prices fail to consolidate above this price zone, I will take it as more bearish confirmation and trade accordingly.

    Should we fail to stay above 7k I feel the price action could lead us into the 5k – 6k zones, as we have now rejoined the previous down trend channel.

    On the flip side of the coin if we consolidate above 7k and perhaps above 7600, we could see some nice buying pressure going into the month of April.

    As usual be patient and wait for the market to show the way, the safest entry at this point would be after price action consolidates above $9000 – $10 000.

    For a higher risk entry look towards 7600 – 8000 for a play.

    Safe trades and Happy Easter to those that are celebrating the holiday.

    #9750
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Hello Guys and Gals, apologies for the long absence the last week and a half, lets take a look at the Bitcoin vs USD.

    btcusd forecast 28 March 2018

    The market reacted quite strongly after the bearish run into the lower 7k zone by recovering and testing $9200.

    However the bullish trend, was short lived as price action faded away.

    We failed to witness a breakout above the 10k resistance zone, which I mentioned previously is our main psychological resistance level, at this point in time.

    The bears are still camping out and there is still money to made on the short side.

    I drew in the blue line to show that there is a shorter term bullish trend developing in the market,  higher lows. Please note that this opinion will be invalid should prices drop below the blue line.

    With that said we can see that we are still in one of the down trend channels (the less evil one), should the bullish price action fail we could join the previous channel and face a possible selloff.

    In my personal opinion I think the buying zone is around $8600 to $5500, the latter being the worse case scenario.

    Short term support (recently found) is around $7600 – $7900, and I would expect lower prices going into the weekend should we fail to stay afloat here.

    The next line of defense, which is also my medium term bullish trend line, is at $7000.

    On the bullish side, should prices consolidate above $8000 – $8600, I would expect a retest of $9000 and possibly $10 000.

    On the longer term I would consider going long if we witness a drop into the 6k and 5k zones.

    Feel free to discuss this trade idea with me in discord. Safe trades.

    #1748
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Hi guys and gals, apologies for my absence, lets take a look at what the Juggernaut has been up too!

    btcusd forecast 20 March 2018
    Taking a look at the Coinbase 1Day candles, we can see the original down trend channel that I have been following since it formed.

    Notice how the prices have failed to break out, yet we have remained in the top part of the channel.

    This is bullish momentum considering we have failed to revisit the botom half of the channel with the last “crash”.

    We can see that the buyers stepped in close to 7k and pushed prices back up into the 8k zone.

    Critical support is around $7300 for me with 8000 – 8200 being the first line of defense.

    Resistance is heavy above 8600 and the bulls have a lot of work to do to get this market to breakout.

    Keep an eye on 8800 – 9000 for a possible break to the 12k zones, safe trades.

    #1732
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Quick update on the Bitcoin markets, after my previous mentioned support level at 8800 failed, the price action responded by falling back into the down trend channel.

    BTC USD forecast 15 March 2018
    We can see the the price has now been rejected by the 0.5 fib, this is bearish and as I mentioned previously, this will mean further correction is necessary in the market before prices move higher.

    Even though prices are falling, the volume has been building up the last 10 days and this a very healthy sign for the market.

    My support zone is in between $6600 and $7500, and not a bad place for longer term buy orders to be placed. Perhaps a few below 6k for luck.

    This could all change quickly in my opinion, should prices consolidate above 8100 today, we might see prices push higher.

    Worst case scenario would be a fall through the $6600 support level, this will send prices to 6k and if that fails we will retest the bottom of the downtrend channel.

    Being a technical trader it helps to be mindful of the fundamentals, when I take into consideration there is some bearish news, it is greatly overpowered by all the bullish developments in the crypto space.

    The buyers are out there (some battered and burnt), open interested is building, lets be patient and wait for the price action to lead the way.

    #1729
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    I would like to pay my respects to one of the greatest minds of our time, RIP Dr Stephen Hawking.

    Taking a look at the Bitcoin chart this morning we can see that we are heading into my critical support zones again, lets take a look.

    BTCUSD market report 14 March 2018
    I drew a fib in from the last major market move we experienced, which was the rally from 6k up to the 11k zone.

    We can clearly see support around the 50% retrace zone, which is very normal for this market, considering volume and volatility is down quite a bit since we first started dropping from 20k.

    The support zones mentioned in the previous report are still holding, with 8800 being the final pillar of strength.

    Should 8800 fail us today I would expect a retest of $8200 and possibly $7200, if the 8k zone fail to summon the buyers.

    In my personal opinion the market is looking healthy, this is only if prices remain above $8800.

    If the above mentioned support levels fail we will be in for a further correction in the market and more panic selling.

    Worst case scenario in my opinion is we take a dip into the 6k zone, but I think buyers will quickly step and catch the knife.

    Longer term speaking we are also in the 50% retrace zone from 20k, this is considered by many as a good retracement and a healthy correction for this size market cap.

    #1713
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    After a volatile weekend for the Bitcoin market, prices rebound back over $9000, buyers stepped in above $8400 and pushed prices back over the 200 ma.

    btcusd forecast 12 March 2018
    Taking a look at the 1 day candle chart we can see that buying support is around the 200 MA, this is a bullish signal on the shorter term.

    Through this we can see that a floor is being built between 8000 – 9000 usd by the bulls. My short term support is still around 8800 – 9000, with the latter being critical.

    In the other camp the bears have been nailing the ceiling together between 9700 – 11 000, this resistance zone is confirmed by the longer term bearish trend line.

    Looking towards the Inverted H&S pattern, it is still a valid bullish formation as long as prices stay above the right shoulder.

    This is around $9200, please note, just my personal opinion (the blue line is the “nek” of the H&S). I moved this to $9000, as it is the main psychological support zone at this point.

    Looking towards the indicators there is a change in the momentum, in favour of the bulls, lets take a look at the 1hr chart.

    BTCUSD 1hr forecast 12 March 2018

    The 1hr chart is speaking of bullish wonders, we can see a nice little bull flag formed, momentum show us that the bulls are regaining control and we have just ticked into the positive zone.

    It is however IMPORTANT to remember that we are still in a bearish market, any buys at these prices will be attempting to call a bottom, and should be considered HIGH RISK.

    The safer buy will always be once the market has confirmed that the bear trend has ended, however lower risk, lower reward.

    With all that said the market is looking healthy and unless we are faced with some FUD or a Tether collapse, we should keep ticking higher until we test the top of the trend channel again.

    Feel free to discuss my trade ideas with me on Discord. Safe trades.

    #1707
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Weekend analysis on the Bitcoin markets.

    BTCUSD forecast 10 March 2018
    Zooming out to the 1day candles we can see that the market experienced a failed breakout at 11k and formed a nice double top.

    Buyers stepped in below the 200 ma and pushed prices back into the 9000 zone, this is a nice bullish confirmation, on the very near term at least.

    I expect we might test 10 000 this weekend, but be careful as prices could return back to 9000 before we start the week.

    Important to note that the momentum is clearly against the bulls on the shorter term, so I would expect a battle between the 8k – 10k zone before we get any more action. Safe trades

     

    #1697
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Hi friends, lets take a look at the Bitcoin market to get a better idea of what to expect going into the weekend.

    btcusd forecast 8 March 2018
    Lets zoom out to the 1 day candles for the diagnosis. I inserted the inverted H&S candlestick formation into the chart as I see so many analysts pointing to it at the moment.

    While the inverted H&S is undoubtedly a very bullish formation, markets need to consolidate above a certain zone for the breakout to occur. Sometimes the breakout can fail a few times before eventually going higher.

    The price is approaching the 200 MA on the 1 day and I will look to see if the bulls come charging or if they are shy.

    The latter will send us below 9k and the market will have to adjust.

    Critical support for me at this point is 8800 – 9000 usd.

    The next level of support would be $7200 – $7500 if the above mentioned fails.

    The resistance zone has now dropped lower to 10k – 11k, which is a good indication that the bears have been busy building a ceiling around those levels, like usual, lets be patient and see what the market does.

    Critcal resistance in my opinion is around 10500 and we should see signs of life when the bulls smash through on the way to 11k.

    I am looking to a possible breakout trade above 11 555. Safe trades.

    #1688
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Just a quick update on the Bitcoin market as prices just broke below 11 000 again.

    Bitcoin forecast 6 March 2018
    The red line was my critical support zone, in my previous report I mentioned that consolidation above 12k was needed for BTCUSD to have a safe entry into the market.

    On the 4hr chart we can clearly see the 11k zone getting rejected, which could also lead to a faile inverted H & S pattern.

    This is a good time to reaffirm the fact that NO candlestick formation has a 100% success rate.

    We could see the buyers step in here and push prices higher, but in my personal opinion we will retest the lower zones again. Safe trades.

    #1667
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Quick update on the Bitcoin markets.

    btcusd forecast 3 March 2018
    This is clearly bullish action and a confirmation should the prices stay above $11 000.

    Futures closed around $11 000 on Friday and I would expect a retest before the week starts.

    Please note there is a divergence between the PPO on the chart, which could lead to a draw down before we go higher.

    The one thing still lacking is the trading volume, be mindful when it shows up, direction will be determined soon.

    Should prices stay above 11k and break 12k I would expect a target of about $16 500 – $18 000 in the next month or two.

    A message from the eternal bear, tread carefully should prices consolidate below 11k.

    Safe trades.

    #1658
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Welcome friends, trolls, gals and countryman! Special thanks to the legendary multi-dimensional CheesPuff for the introductions this month.

    I hear we are all going to the moon again, let me jump into the market and dissect the rumors.

    BTCUSD 1 March 2018
    I hear what everybody is saying and I can also see the bull flag formation, but success is not guaranteed on any candle formation, we might have a 70% chance of a breakout should the bulls show up.

    I am not impressed with the price action on the Bitcoin market and it is clear to me that this is still a bearish ship.

    Things could change if the Bulls decide to show up and actually buy some Bitcoin, but I fear they know better.

    I am still bearish on the market and would advise caution until we get consolidation above 11k and a retest of 12k.

    Be mindful of the bears as prices slip closer to 10k, with 10k being the major psychological support at this time.

    There is a saying that comes to mind, “Be greedy when others are fearfull, and fearfull when others are ______ “.

    Safe trades, remember you can find me on Discord should you need any trading advice.

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