Forum Forums Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast – Technical Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis – November 2018

This topic contains 4 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by margincall margincall 6 days, 17 hours ago.

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  • #18280
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    This is the thread for price analysis on the Bitcoin markets in the month of November 2018.

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  • #18367
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    After a nice little breakout last week, the bears made it clear that they still had some selling to do. Prices retraced to -1% below the previous breakout point leaving a lot of traders in the crypto space scratching their heads. Let’s do some price analysis on the 4hr chart, and read on to the end for an interesting fundamental teaser.

    btcusd price analysis 14 Nov 2018

    Many traders that entered the breakout trade last week and did not take profits are finding themselves at a deficit, so where to go from here? Interesting enough the price action has been trying to rejoin the previous bearish trend, but we are seeing some decent buying pressure around that area.

    There is a small divergence starting between the momentum and the price action, a nice technique that traders employ to try to predict future price movements. I would like to add that the RSI is well below 50 on the 4 hour chart so I would not get too excited as it is still bearish on the shorter term. We need to be patient while the market shows us the next move.

    There is also a possible morning doji star forming, depending on how this current candle will close, higher risk traders will certainly be looking at the Bitcoin market considering all the above mentioned.

    Should prices fail to break above the current short term resistance at $6300, the market could experience another drop to test the immediate support at $6250. Should we break below this support level it is important to keep an eye on the momentum and the volume to determine whether there will be a bounce or further decline to test medium term support around $6000 – $6200.

    Fundamental teaser

    This is just my opinion and is not backed up by any data, as there most likely is none to back it up.

    OTC (Over The Counter) trading is a part of the Cryptocurrency ecosystem that is not often mentioned or understood by many in the space. This kind of trading is usually between certain individuals or companies, and naturally the data for this is strictly private and not available to the public.

    There are some websites that facilitate OTC trading and the community does indeed have access to these, but I believe this is really a very small drop in the OTC ocean. At the moment some experts suggest that over 50% of the current volume for the Bitcoin market is on the OTC market.

    What does this mean for us traders? Well it simply means that the public api does not represent all the trading volume in the world, keep that in mind when doing your technical analysis.

    Feel free to join our trading community on Discord to discuss any crypto trading ideas. Safe trades!

     

     

    • This reply was modified 6 days, 15 hours ago by CheesePuff CheesePuff.
    #18346
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Taking a look at the medium term picture for the Bitcoin market market, as we saw a nice little bullish trend on the shorter time frame the last few weeks.

    btcusd price analysis 7 Nov 2018

    http://www.tradingview.com

    The MA 10 has been acting as a good indicator for the shorter term resistance, and currently price action is trading well above the moving average indicating some decent momentum. The RSI on the 1 Day candle chart confirms the bullish momentum as it is getting ready to test the 60 level.

    $6500 has been a key resistance zone for me the last few months and I am looking for the break above $6500 to signal the fomo or another sell off from the bears. Volume has dried out and we can see the price range coiling tighter as the bears are running out of bags to dump on the market.

    This has been a good distribution phase and I think the market is getting ready to test the ceiling that the bears built around $6500 – $7000. Should we get the eventual breakout here I would expect the volatility to go up a bit and would be careful on the margin trading.

    Many traders are looking to get into to the market, however there are many traders and speculators looking to get out, lets be patient and let the market show us the way. Safe trades.

     

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 6 days ago by CheesePuff CheesePuff.
    #18284
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    The Bitcoin market saw some good price action yesterday when prices broke through the bullish flag and pushed up to $6400 (like mentioned in the previous report) before we saw sellers stepping in.

    The market is currently correcting, and Elliot Wave theory suggests that there could be one more move up before we hit the next resistance zone.

    btcusd price analysis 2 October 2018

    I will be keeping a eye on the RSI and MA 20 on the 1hr candle chart for btcusd. The MA should act as the possible support zone, while the RSI has to stay above 50. Should the RSI dip below 50 and the MA fails to act as support there will be further correction in the market, possibly testing $6300 as the new floor.

    Support is still much the same in my opinion, $6200 – $6300, as mentioned in the previous report. Resistance is currently still strong at between $6400 – $6500 and the bulls will have their work cut out for them to push prices past here and get some fomo going for Bitcoin.

     

     

    #18281
    margincall
    margincall
    Keymaster

    Taking a quick look at the Bitcoin market versus the US Dollar after BTCUSD price failed to break above the $6500 – $6400 resistance zone towards the end of last month. Im using the 30 min candle chart to illustrate the shorter term possibilities.

    btcusd price analysis 1 November 2017

    As you can see from the chart above, the price action failed to rejoin the previous bearish trend (purple line), instead it bounced on the 31 st of October from $6200, to back over $6300, painting a nice bullish pennant / flag on the shorter time frame.

    The RSI is also painting a bullish signal on the shorter time frame, which will be inviting the day traders and higher risk players to bet on a breakout. I usually look to the bullish side as well as the bear, in this scenario, I think that the Bitcoin bulls have built their floor around $6200 – $6300, and I will look for these levels to fail before going short on the market.

    A break above this flag should push prices towards $6400 – $6500, however if the bulls don’t step up with the buying volume we could see the RSI dipping below 50 and price action following suite.

    Feel free to join our trading community on Discord to discus any trade ideas. Safe trading.

    GG Crypto Bot
     

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